WHUFC v UEL Adversity: Who Wins?
West Ham’s date with destiny has arrived. It’s time for the Hammers to battle through some classic Europa League adversity and there’s every chance they’ll come out the other side unscathed.
David Moyes & Co. travel to Lyon for the second leg of their quarter-final series without the support of Aaron Cresswell and Kurt Zouma. Also of note: the club’s only centre forward hasn’t scored in over a month and mistakes have started to creep into Declan Rice’s performances.
While the situation facing West Ham isn’t exactly ideal, there are still reasons to believe in this team – let’s take a minute to break some of them down.
West Ham’s defensive structure against Lyon was impressive, especially after Cresswell’s dismissal. Tomas Soucek and Rice combined admirably as a stay-at-home double-pivot, preventing the French side from threading passes through the half-spaces.
Bizarrely, Craig Dawson has developed serious big-game player vibes and was superb last week.
Underrated as a two-way player, Manuel Lanzini is back and has the technique needed to make an impact against transition-vulnerable Lyon.
Michail Antonio, though in a slump, came across a second wind in leg two versus Sevilla, maybe it’ll happen again?
For the sake of balance, there are also plenty of reasons not to believe in West Ham at the moment:
Moyes doesn’t like tinkering and will be forced to do so with Cresswell and Zouma out.
Issa Diop, notorious for fluffing his lines in high-pressure matches, is in pole position to start in place of Zouma.
Cresswell’s suspension leaves West Ham without their best set-piece taker, problematic for a team that specialises in scoring from dead-ball situations.
Antonio hasn’t scored since 2 March.
In fairness, Lyon aren’t exactly playing out of their skins either. They’ve struggled defensively under Peter Bosz and are vulnerable on the transition. They’re also tenth in Ligue 1 and five points back of a Europa Conference League berth.
Even without Cresswell and Zouma, tonight’s all-or-nothing affair is highly winnable for West Ham – they just need to be brave and for the odd bounce to go their way.
David Moyes: Stick or Twist?
It’s fair to say that Moyes is in a bit of a pickle, he’s instinctively reluctant to fiddle with his system but will be forced into doing so against Lyon.
Here’s the issue:
Sans Zouma and Cresswell, Moyes has two positions to fill.
Flipping Diop (CB) and Ben Johnson (LB) into the XI is the quickest fix.
HOWEVER, Ryan Fredericks started in the first leg – meaning Moyes could make a third change to his backline: Fredericks for Coufal.
That would leave West Ham with a back four of:
Johnson (on his wrong side)
Diop (low on match sharpness)
Dawson (less effective alongside Diop)
Coufal (recently back from surgery)
Frankly, I’m not convinced Moyes would be willing to start that defence in the biggest match of his career. I could be wrong (it’s the logical line-up and West Ham’s coach is a man of logic), but it’s worth considering an alternative set-up. Like this:
It’s slightly off the wall by his standards but could Moyes be compelled to start Rice in defence?
It’s clear Diop hasn’t earned his trust (nor mine) and moving Rice into the backline opens options up in the midfield. Sliding the 23-year-old into central defence would allow Moyes to start Lanzini, Pablo Fornals, AND Said Benrahma without fundamentally changing his system. That would have two benefits:
Lyon are vulnerable on the transition (due to their high line and error-prone defence), having multiple ball-players in midfield would help West Ham to exploit this.
It would allow Johnson and/or Coufal to play more conservatively, freeing them to focus exclusively on containing Lyon’s talented forwards
There are also obvious drawbacks:
Rice wouldn’t be playing in his strongest position,
Soucek would have to sit deeper, limiting his impact as an offensive threat to set pieces,
Sitting both full-backs deeper exposes West Ham to the risk of being pegged in their own half.
It also wouldn’t be a very Moyes-y approach and requires him to make a catalogue of changes.
So, maybe we should scratch this idea off the list too?
Also of note: Moyes has previously spoken about the importance of having solid defensive midfielders versus fast attackers. Moving Rice into defence therefore wouldn’t be ideal.
And that’s the problem: Moyes is boxed in.
His only option is to make significant changes to his line-up, leaving just one point to consider before kick-off: will he stick with a back four or switch to a back five?
Although Moyes is likely to stick with his plug-and-play tactic, he’s experimented with a 5-3-2 recently. We’ve seen Jarrod Bowen drift further and further towards the centre this season, it isn’t out of the question that he could line-up alongside Antonio tonight.
We’ll see – but Moyes has massive decisions to make either way and they will decide the outcome. These are the points he has to consider:
Defence: who replaces Zouma and how will the back four/five adapt as a result?
Offensive Transition: which shape/system/personnel will help West Ham to retain defensive structure while posing a threat to Lyon on the counter?
Defensive Transition: if Rice is dropped into defence, which combination of players will be best placed to control central zones?
Some Thoughts on Lyon
Lyon’s play in the first leg was typical of a side familiar with playing under high-pressure environments.
Yes, I’m talking about the sending-off — which was soft… but warranted.
Bosz’s team had the upper hand from whistle-to-whistle, controlling the tempo even before Cresswell’s sending off. Their interplay in the final third was tidy, with Lucas Paqueta pulling the strings from the #10 role.
However, there are a couple of points worth bearing in mind:
Lyon’s specialism is creating chances and they topped out at 2.1xG and three shots on target in leg one.
Playing with a high defensive line is a key tenet of Boszball: for better or worse.
Tactically, Lyon are a favourable match for West Ham and it showed last week. If – and it’s a big if – the Hammers score early, acres of exploitable space will open up behind Lyon’s defence. Space Antonio has proven he can exploit.
There are goals to be had for both teams tonight, especially as Moyes is without a pair of key defenders.
Is This West Ham’s Moment?
I’m not ready to count West Ham out of the Europa League, they’ve overcome adversity before – notably so against Sevilla in the previous round.
There’s no doubt Moyes is capable of guiding the Hammers to the Europa League’s final four, his strong coaching performance in the round of sixteen proved that.
However, West Ham’s path to the semi-final is more complicated now that Zouma and Cresswell are out of the picture. They’re key players who impact the team’s structure at both ends of the pitch.
Replacing them in the line-up is also made more difficult by the club’s refusal to sign adequate depth.
Moyes is an issue in this scenario, too: he’s far too reluctant to use the players that are at his disposal. Two summer signings spring to mind: Nikola Vlasic (481 mins) and Alex Kral (258 mins).
Neither of them is likely to start against Lyon – but might’ve if Moyes battle-tested them early this season.
FWIW, not giving Kral the opportunity to prove himself in the Premier League (he’s played one minute) is a huge act of self-sabotage. His ceiling is high… and he’s versatile.
I’ll leave you with a few final points, addressing both sides of the ‘are West Ham good or not?’ debate.
Alphonse Areola is weak in the air – a flaw unlikely to be exposed by Lyon.
Coufal has been nursing an injury all season – but that’s fixed now…
When was the last time Rice played three ‘meh’ games in a row? After a few spotty games, he should rebound versus Lyon.
Antonio’s production over his last 650 minutes: zero goals, one assist.
Andriy Yarmolenko has started to find form coming off the bench.
West Ham’s first leg performance against Lyon was poor by the team’s recent standards.
I’m not saying West Ham will win. I’m saying they probably should.