Born in Brentwood, Made in the EFL: How Will Flynn Downes Help West Ham?
Since his transfer from Swansea to West Ham, Flynn Downes has been dubbed a “Mark Noble regen” by fans of the East London club.
But is that an accurate description of the 23-year-old?
Well, there are more than a few similarities between Downes and West Ham’s retired captain: they both support the club, play(ed) in central midfield, and wear their hearts on their sleeves.
However, that’s just about where the Downes-Nobes connections end.
During his prime, Noble was more of a box-to-box utility player than an out-and-out defensive midfielder. He projected lots of ball-winning traits (determined, if laboured, recovery runs, passionate team talks, etc…) but that wasn’t actually his bag — which is why David Moyes kept playing him as a number 10 during his final seasons with the team.
Brentwood-born Downes, by contrast, talks the talk and walks the walk defensively. Before I break out my spreadsheet, let’s take a look at a pair of his rear-guard actions from last season:
Swansea are leading 1-0 but are down a player in the final 20 minutes against Blackburn Rovers on 5 February, 2022. Joe Rothwell (BLA8) slips a throwball down the channel to Reda Khadra (BLA7). Now, here comes Downes (SWA4), sliding into your DMs like…
The Swans ultimately saw off Blackburn’s threat, winning with a clean sheet at home.
Also of note: a defensive read in the attacking half versus Blackpool:
It’s 0-0 after 20 minutes and Swansea are looking for the opening goal. However, Blackpool win possession and quickly move the ball to Jerry Yates (BLA9). Without a moment’s hesitation, Downes (SWA4) flips into action, hustling BLA9 to create a turnover.
Unfortunately for Downes, his one-v-one success didn’t result in a goal. Swansea and Blackpool went on to play out a 1-1 draw on 20 November, 2021.
And, for all the playmaking fans out there, here’s my favourite ball-playing moment from West Ham’s newest recruit, this time for Ipswich Town:
It’s 0-0 after 69 minutes and Ipswich Town are in the ascendancy. Freddie Sears (IPS10) has peeled away from his marker and wants the ball. Downes (IPS21) obliges, receiving on the half-turn before threading a neat pass path into IPS10’s path:
Sadly for fans tuning in from home, the match (played in March, 2021) remained scoreless.
Of course, there’s only so much you can read into 33 seconds of football. The above is a small window into what Downes will offer his new club: aggressive defensive play and burgeoning playmaking instincts.
With that, let’s break into the numbers.
Downes doesn’t shine offensively. In his lone season with Swansea, he generated 0.02 expected assists (xA) and attempted only 0.22 through balls per 90. In other words, he won’t be teeing up Michail Antonio very often.
However, he was always active in possession, receiving 53.04 passes per 90 — proving his involvement in the Jacks’ early build-up play. That also shines through in his passes to the final third stat of 5.78 per 90.
Finally, a quick look at his ‘secondary assist’ haul, an accolade handed to the player who passes to the assistor. Downes averaged 0.03 second assists per 90, which, considering his high number of touches per appearance, indicates that he conducted most of his passing in the defensive half.
Thus, it’s fair to say West Ham haven’t signed Downes because they see him as a game-breaking passer. He’s tidy in possession (as shown by his 94.6 percent pass completion rate) but won’t shift the needle offensively.
To prove my point, his all-time stat-line: 11,874 minutes played (throughout his career in all competitions), four goals, four assists.
Why, then, did the Hammers sign £14 million-man Downes?
“We think he’s got good energy,” Moyes told whufc.com. “We think he’s got a lot of things which we have about our team, which would want to keep and want to add to. I’m looking forward to it.”
In other words, it’s all about Downes’ ability to win and retain possession.
Despite standing at only 5’8”, he punches above his weight in the air — winning 42.1 percent of his aerial duels. He’s even better on the floor, coming out on top in 60.3 percent of his defensive duels.
His tackling technique jumps off the page, including earlier in this newsletter versus Blackburn.
He also reads the play well. Throughout his career, he’s averaged 4.68 interceptions per 90 — which isn’t a world away from Declan Rice’s 5.31 clip.
In possession, Downes is neat but unspectacular. His head is constantly on a swivel, scanning the pitch to identify the safest passing route. When he finds it, he deploys his close control and distribution to move the ball along.
He’ll be a fan-favourite in East London if he adapts to life in the Premier League. And Moyes is confident that the right-footed central midfielder is capable of making the jump.
“We’re always trying to find boys from the Championship who we think are going to step up to become Premier League players and I’m hoping that Flynn does,” said Moyes. “I think there’s a good chance as he’s got an awful lot of good attributes and he’s young enough as well.”
Speaking to the club’s website, Downes added: “Players have come here like Jarrod, come from the Championship, gone to West Ham and gone on and on. He’s now playing for England and that’s what I want to do. I want to follow in those footsteps.
“That’s another thing that drew me to this club – I love it anyway but that pushed me even more. I just want to get out there, play games and show what I can do.”
He talks the talk. We’ll soon know if he can walk the walk in the Premier League.
Good piece Luke