Why Every England Match is a Referendum & How Gareth Southgate Keeps Winning Them
Whenever the Toronto Maple Leafs take to the ice, there is an unofficial referendum on their head coach, general manager, and just about everything else under the sun.
And it’s understandable.
The Leafs are an institution of the hockey world, with a fanbase that is desperate to taste success after decades in the darkness.
Toronto hasn’t seen a championship since 1967, nor has it won a playoff round since 2004.
While the Leafs played an important role in building the National Hockey League, their habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory has seen them become the butt of every joke in the sport.
In many ways, they are to hockey what the English men’s national team is to football.
The Three Lions haven’t won a trophy since 1966, often find bizarre ways to lose, and are rarely taken seriously as a result.
Which explains why the nation finds itself in the middle of an optimistic tidal wave the day after an impressive, composed, and commanding victory over Wales at the World Cup.
In other words, England — and their often under-siege head coach Gareth Southgate — are back on the right side of public opinion because they put their neighbours to the sword in Group B.
England’s performance in Al Rayyan was exactly what they needed after their vanilla draw with the USA. While it wasn’t an instant classic, the Three Lions dictated the tempo and earned Jordan Pickford one of the easiest clean sheets of his career — as shown by the expected goals (xG) timeline:
Southgate made four changes to his team after their American stalemate, with Kieran Trippier, Mason Mount, Bukayo Saka, and Raheem Sterling replaced by Kyle Walker, Jordan Henderson, Phil Foden, and Marcus Rashford.
It proved to be an inspired decision.
Rashford and Foden were exceptional in attack on Harry Kane’s flanks, leaving Southgate with a selection headache before his side’s clash with Senegal on Sunday [4 December].
“You want those sorts of decisions,” he explained. “We need strength in depth. It was also important for us tonight that Kyle Walker got minutes and Kalvin Phillips got minutes. You just never know when we’re going to need that depth.
“It’s tough because you’ve got players who didn’t get on to the field and players who will be slightly disappointed. But the spirit in the dressing room at the end was fantastic. They’ve got a day off their feet. They don’t have to train tomorrow – that’s important. Especially the players who haven’t started as many games, they’ve been training every single day. They don’t have to look at our faces, which I’m sure they’ll be delighted with.”
Now, the attention shifts to England’s next confidence vote.
Will they stick with the back-four that has served them well in Qatar or revisit the five-player defence that squeezed them into the final of EURO 2020?
Usually, coaches consider a switch of system in three situations.
They want to park the bus.
They expect their next opponent to attack with five players spread across the pitch, which would leave a back-four at a numerical disadvantage.
They are due to face two centre-forwards, which would occupy both centre-backs.
With that in mind, there is no justification for England to revert to a back-five versus Senegal — a squad built around set-plays and counters. They rarely attack in numbers, will start with a single striker, and will be happy to concede possession as a result.
Southgate has never been swayed by public opinion. He is a conviction coach with defensive instincts and a core set of players he trusts. He will inevitably switch to a back-five at some point, but it shouldn’t be from the start versus Senegal.
For now, he should let his players play.